There is hardly an example in US history, when leaving President would hand over the administration with such a noise. Normally, the change of power in the White House was held quietly and steadily. But Barack Obama’s departure makes a new record in the history. And all because of the fact that Obama does his best to complicate the future work of President-elect Trump. This process, oddly enough, also engages the US Congress, in which the majority belongs to the Republicans – Trump’s fellow party members.
In my view, such a paradoxical situation happened because Donald Trump is not a usual American politician. He is the original with a lot of money, who set a goal and went for it, as a business shark. For this he is hated by his political opponents – Democrats, for this he is hated by his own Republicans.
Member of the Scientific Advisory Council of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Sergei Karaganov, a political scientist, expressed the opinion that “the elected American President cannot stand three-quarters of the American elite. Such a split in American society will result in a constant struggle of Trump with the elite both before the inauguration and after it.” According to Karaganov, impeachment attempts and even attempted murder can be used as a possible way to fight.
The Obama administration in the remaining weeks in power tries to leave the new administration of Trump as much as possible from its neoconservative heritage. For example, in the Middle East, a ban on the supply of weapons to Islamic radicals is removed, and investigation of “Moscow hand” in the American presidential race began. America is overwhelmed with anti-Russian hysteria that threatens to become an escort for the Trump administration’s future policy. According to calculations of the Obama-Clinton team, Trump will simply have no choice but to follow the precepts of the neo-conservatives. Herein lies the main reason for recent attacks in Russia’s address by the current US President.
The Republican majority of Congress, oddly enough, helps the Democrat Obama. ‘Frenzied printer’ makes decisions that will complicate Trump’s implementation of election promises, particularly with regard to Russia and China.
The American parliament decided in 2017 to allocate $ 4.3 billion to curb Russia and $ 350 million to help Ukraine. No need to be a prophet to understand what that means to Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republic. All military cooperation with Russia is minimized so that in the report to Congress Secretary of State Kerry could tell that Russia has ceased to threaten NATO and Ukraine, and has ceased to “occupy” its territory.
Also, Congress actually froze the action of a number of international treaties. For example, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. “Allocation of $10 million intended for the executive office of the President of the United States is locked until the defense minister tells Congressmen that is done for ‘Russia’s admonition’ in this direction.” The same applies to the “Agreement on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms until the administration submits to Congress a series of reports” concerning Russia’s nuclear doctrine.
Such neoconservatives’ actions in the White House and on Capitol Hill can erase one of the main election promises Trump – detach Russia from China. China, which successfully pushes the United States from the Far East Asia, and Russia, which does the same in the Middle East, can become even closer.
Obama has prepared several traps for Trump, and if the new US President will fall into them, and therefore will be forced to take a course of neoconservatives, he will prepare traps for Russia himself. There are three of them.
The first trap: US will attempt to pull Russia from China, promising some preferences. It is no coincidence that Trump immediately after the election ceased to speak negatively about China. Even the famous call to Taiwan was not perceived in Beijing as a deadly insult. The PRC leadership “remains neutral in relation to Trump’s victory. It seems to believe that, although bilateral relations will somehow change, they do not expect a fundamental change. They will be, as before, not amazing and not awful. “And Russia should remember that in the West, it has not become a good guy, and Western partners can ‘ditch’ it at any time, so it is not necessary to risk Chinese partnership for the sake of the United States.
The second trap is the Middle East. America may weaken its influence in the region, which with the success of Russia may give the impression that the era of Soviet domination returned. But this is not the case, says the scientific director of the International Discussion Club “Valdai” Fyodor Lukyanov, because “the Soviet Union had at least an ideological lever – true or not, but structuring ideology that was offered to partners. Now there is nothing like it.”
And, of course, Europe is the third trap for Russia. Europe is appalled by the election Trump, who is looking at it almost with disdain for the amorphous state. Russia may increase its influence on the continent in the foreseeable future, but does Russia really need it? The entire historical experience shows that deep penetration of Russia in European affairs made it an enemy of Europe, which, together, went to an open confrontation with Russia.
In the meantime, the leaving ‘lame duck’ Obama is trying in every way to take revenge on Russia for the failure which befell him, in particular the decision to expel 35 Russian diplomats from the US, the new Trump environment takes notes of those who are not able to foster a constructive foreign policy dialogue. Of course, throwing such challenges, Obama counts on the response from the Kremlin, which then he will expertly present in the media, to somehow justify to the citizens of the States for the selected anti-Russian course. But since such has already occurred, such predictable attacks of the leaving White House administration will not have the desired effect, as overstayers in the US State Department officials have ceased to see beyond their own noses.
Besides, you cannot so quickly abandon the achievements of “turning to Asia.” It is clear that Russia does not have any true friends in the West or in Asia; there are, so to speak, associates. There are fraternal nations, allied states, and so on. Russia’s friends, as we know, are its army and navy… and military space forces. Therefore we cannot be closed completely at any one direction, while maintaining a well-known balance between Europe and Asia. No coincidence that Russia is a Eurasian state. And Russia will overcome different traps set whether by Obama or Trump, as it follows its national interests.
Vladimir Bidyovka, the DPR People’s Council deputy